The chart below shows the spread (the difference) between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate.
#QUICKEN LOANS REFINANCE RATES HOW TO#
Note how to what extent the mortgage rates have out-spiked the somewhat lethargic 10-year Treasury yield: This chart shows the weekly 10-year Treasury yield (green) and the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate (red).
To get to a wider spread, we have to go back to 1986. The difference between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury – the “spread” – at today’s mortgage rate per Freddie Mac, has widened to 2.92 percentage points, matching the multi-year high on December 31, 2008, during the Financial Crisis, just one week. The average lifespan of a 30-year mortgage is less than 10 years, according to Rocket Mortgage. This makes sense because most mortgages get paid off much sooner than in 30- years, as people refinance the mortgage or sell the home. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate runs roughly in parallel with the 10-year Treasury yield, but higher.
#QUICKEN LOANS REFINANCE RATES MAC#
The average 15-year mortgage – if you can handle the payment at the current prices – spiked by 52 basis points from the prior week to 5.96% (green line), the highest since October 2008, according to Freddie Mac data.īut wait: even these much higher-than-last-year mortgage rates are still far below the rate of inflation, with CPI inflation over 8%. Since mid-August, when the summer bear-market rally ended, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked by 171 basis points. It then dropped back, and today jumped again, hitting 6.95%.įreddie Mac’s weekly measure, released today, based on mortgage rates early this week, jumped by 41 basis points from the prior week, to 6.7%, the highest since 2007 (red line in the chart below). The daily measure of the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate by Mortgage News Daily hit 7.08% on Tuesday last week.
Others have shut down (read: Mortgage Lender Woes) Some mortgage lenders already filed for bankruptcy. The entire industry is trimming back to survive. The largest mortgage lenders in the US – Rocket Companies, which owns Quicken Loans, United Wholesale Mortgage, which owns United Shore Financial, and LoanDepot, all have cut staff by thousands of people each, and their stocks have crashed. The mortgage refi business is crucial for the mortgage lenders. So the HELOC business, which has totally died down since the Financial Crisis, should perk up again. No homeowners in their right minds are going to refinance an old 3% or 4% mortgage with a new 7% mortgage, except to extract emergency cash, which will cost them dearly, and they might be able to accomplish the same for a lot less with a HELOC. The weekly drop was in part caused by Hurricane Ian, and in part by the spike in mortgage rates into the 7% range:Īpplications for mortgages to refinance an existing mortgage plunged by 18% compared to the prior week, seasonally adjusted, and by 86% from a year ago, to the lowest level since January 2000. They fell through the lows during the lockdowns and hit the lowest level since October 2015! Purchase mortgage applications are an indication of housing demand over the next few weeks.
Compared to the same week last year, purchase mortgage applications dropped by 37%. In the week ended September 30, demand for mortgages to purchase a home plunged by 13%, seasonally adjusted, from the already beaten-down levels in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today.
But even these highest-since-2007 mortgage rates are still far below the highest-since-1981 inflation.
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